Blog: Is This the Year the Miami Heat Don't Get Away With It?
I'm realizing as I write this, I'm doubting Pat Riley. No one makes money doubting Pat Riley.
Last season, the Miami Heat finished with the eighth best record in the eastern conference — narrowly finishing above their pre-season over/under of 45.5. Their first round exit would come at the hands of the eventual championship winner Boston Celtics — notably without Terry Rozier and Jimmy Butler, ending another complicated season down in South Beach.
It was their second straight season where they sat in the bottom five of the NBA in points per game — instead relying on a stellar deference performances to keep a competitive edge. They had seemingly hit on rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. — whose 11.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game earned him a fourth place finish when it came to Rookie of the Year honors and ninth place when it came to Sixth Man of the Year honors.
In this off-season, they did lose Caleb Martin, Delon Wright and waived Orland Robinson — who looked impressed in Summer League and make sneak into the rotation for the Kings. But they got Kel’el Ware — who appeared to be outstanding in the Summer League performances — and Pelle Larsson through the draft. They re-signed Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love and Haywood Highsmith. And they added Alec Burks from the New York Knicks.
Does any of this matter?
Since the bubble, the Miami Heat has continued to find themselves as a contender in the eastern conference. It has been five years of Jimmy Butler. Five!! To show for it, they have two Finals appearances, two first round exits and a heartbreaking Game 7 loss in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals after Butler missed front iron.
And a lot of weight has been put onto their recent history with Boston — meeting four times in the last five years in the playoffs.
2020 - Heat win the series 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals
2022 - Heat lose the series 3-4 in the Eastern Conference Finals
2023 - Heat win the series 4-3 in the Eastern Conference Finals
2024 -Heat lose the series 1-4 in the first round
2021, they just get completely steamrolled by the Bucks. Seriously, it was one of the more embarrassing moments in recent NBA memory. Heat fans were riding the high of their 4-1 series victory in the bubble, leading to an excessive amount of sh**-talk directed at the Bucks. Meanwhile, the Bucks had Giannis Antetokounmpo.
It has been five years of immense success for the Miami Heat and one should not discount that reality and just how impressive it is. But it does strike questions about a potential “missed window” when it comes to their current iteration.
At best, they have three problems immediately in front of them:
Problem #1: They still haven’t done “that” trade.
Back in 2021, the team signed a 34 year old Kyle Lowry, who was coming off of this first season where he did not make an All Star game appearance since the 2013-14 season and had played his fewest games since the 2011-12 season. Lowry was a 13.4/7.5/4.5 guy. Unfortunately for Lowry, he would suffer a hamstring injury that would plague his individual performance throughout said playoffs and despite powering through the injury, he was never the same.
It spearheaded the idea of trading for another guard, a clear gap in the Heat line-up — leading to rumors of going after Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard. And Miami has seemingly missed out on both — even if the potential does remain for an ailing Damian Lillard to find a new home this season as well.
The one trade they did — bringing in Terry Rozier in replacement of Kyle Lowry, was one of mixed results prior to his season ending injury. And Terry Rozier is still not fully healthy, unsure of his status towards the start of the season.
Problem #2: Trae Young is healthy again
Speaking of healthy players, the Heat were very fortunate when it came to the luck of fellow competitors. It is widely understood that the eastern conference is very, very bad at the bottom of the barrel — with Washington, Detroit and Brooklyn all potential candidates for worst record in basketball history this season.
7 games separated the 8th seed (Heat) and the 9th seed (Chicago) last season. But in the shadows lurked at 36 win team in the Atlanta Hawks — who only had Trae Young for 54 games. The Dejounte Murray pairing did not work for Atlanta and with the lottery ball dropping in their favor, they added a perimeter threat to a team that frankly isn’t that bad to begin with when centered around Trae Young. Suddenly, the Hawks are back in realistic contention for a lower playoff seed.
Also, add Dejounte Murray to missed trades for the Miami Heat.
Problem #3: Are we sure Jimmy Butler isn’t going to ask for a trade?
Did we also forget that Jimmy Butler wants a contract?
It does get lost in the fold as Philadelphia did give Paul George the contract he was looking for this off-season. Butler is coming off of a sprained MCL — which he questionably attempted to play through with the hopes of the basketball gods blessing his knee back into perfect health. He gave his all to the team, potentially with the reality creeping in that this was the last opportunity when it came to a Heat championship window. And now, it becomes a question: do you pay him or do you rebuild.
Problem #3.5: No one wants Tyler Herro.
This doesn’t get a full point or a longer statement because we’ve known this for years, Pat Riley.
But it is kind of strange to be at this point, we’re nearing the beginning of the season, and Pat Riley has not done much. There isn’t some speculation of a crazy trade, there wasn’t this magnificent off-season signing. It is very much the same as the Heat were last season — which was a middling eastern conference team and a City Edition court design that people made fun of.
The salty runback does beg the question of what Pat Riley and company potentially see versus what the rest of the basketball viewing audience sees.
A front-court of Nikola Jovic and Bam Adebayo does create some interest but it is tough to tell if Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro will be the guards that set them up for success. Are we really going to be okay with a world where Terry Rozier has to take 20+ shots a night?
Adebayo did just land himself a 3-year, $166 million extension, a contract fitting of someone of his caliber but he also lacks the offensive prowess to be a player to lean on. Once again, it does feel as if Riley and company are going to attempt to run Butler into the ground, riding his coattails as far as possible.
Mid-season acquisitions are always possible and can completely turn a season on its head. But once again, it is tough to ignore that Miami has been searching for a “big swing” and has continued to sit on their hands with no championship to show for it and no real diamond in the rough that can be used to bring in the next era. It does feel as if they are hoping for a disaster to capitalize on, reliant on their foundation versus their ceiling.
Or, it could just be the result of having a 79 year old team president.